XAU/USD Weekly Forecast: Key Levels and Market Sentiment

Welcome to Artemis Trades' weekly XAU/USD outlook - a concise breakdown of the key levels, macro events, and trading bias for gold heading into the new week. This analysis combines technical structure with the fundamental backdrop to give you a complete view of the market.

Weekly Bias: Bullish

The long-term trend remains firmly bullish. Gold closed above its 20-week EMA for the 14th consecutive week - a streak not seen since the 2019–2020 bull run that eventually took XAU to $2,075. Real yields are falling, the Dollar is weakening, and central bank demand remains structural. The path of least resistance continues to favour buyers on dips.

Key Technical Levels

• Major resistance: $2,550 (Fibonacci extension) / $2,600 (round number)
• Immediate resistance: $2,510–$2,520 (last week's high)
• Immediate support: $2,475–$2,480 (last week's consolidation base)
• Major support: $2,430–$2,440 (previous ATH / demand zone)
• Stop for longs: Below $2,420 on a daily close basis

Macro Events This Week

The week's key risk events include Tuesday's US retail sales data, Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes, and Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Any sign of economic weakness in the retail sales data would reinforce the rate-cut narrative and support gold. The FOMC minutes will be parsed closely for signals about the pace of easing.

Positioning Snapshot

CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows speculative long positioning in gold futures at 78% of the 52-week high - elevated but not at extreme levels that typically signal a top. Options markets show a clear call skew, indicating institutional players are positioned for further upside.

Trade Idea

Buy dips to $2,475–$2,480 with stops below $2,455. First target $2,520, second target $2,550. If price opens the week and immediately breaks $2,520 with momentum, add on the breakout targeting $2,560. Risk/reward is favourable in the current environment - the macro wind is at gold's back.