USD/JPY Falls Below 145 - BOJ Intervention Risk Rises Again

USD/JPY broke below the 145.00 level this week in a swift 180-pip decline, driven by a combination of a broad Dollar selloff following dovish Fed commentary and increasingly hawkish language from the Bank of Japan. The pair is now testing levels last seen in March 2026.

BOJ Turning Hawkish

The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% at its June meeting - a move that initially had limited impact as the market had already priced it in. However, Governor Ueda's comments this week suggesting the BOJ is prepared to hike again in 2026 if wage growth remains strong have shifted the narrative meaningfully. Japanese 10-year yields are at 1.45%, the highest since 2009.

Intervention Risk

The previous two rounds of Japanese FX intervention occurred at 145-152 on the way up (2022) and 160+ (2024). With price now below 145 and moving in the Yen's favour, intervention from the MOF is less likely here - they typically intervene to stop Yen weakness, not Yen strength. However, a sharp, disorderly Yen rally below 140 could prompt action to slow the move.

• Key support: 143.50 / 142.00
• Resistance: 146.00 / 148.00
• Trend: Bearish below 148.00 on the daily chart

Trading Approach

The trend is Yen strength (USD/JPY lower). Sell rallies toward 146.00-146.50 with stops above 147.50. Target 143.50. This is a trend-following trade with the macro wind at your back - diverging monetary policy between a tightening BOJ and an easing Fed is a powerful multi-month driver.